2026 NFL Season · One team a week · No repeats · Lose or tie, you're out

Survivor Roadmap

Exact-optimized 18-week pick path from DraftKings lookahead spreads blended with ESPN FPI. Every pick below is the season-level optimum, not the biggest favorite of the week — the plan re-optimizes weekly as lines move.

This week — Week 1 · Sun Sep 13

Los Angeles Chargers over Arizona Cardinals

Home, −10.5 — the biggest number on the board. Backup: Jacksonville Jaguars (72%) costs almost nothing season-long.

77%

win prob

The 18-week path

LAC Los Angeles Chargers

vs ARI · home · Sun Sep 13 · spread 10.5

Backups: JAX 72% free swap · DET 70%

77%

public32%

alive77.5%

SF San Francisco 49ers

vs MIA · home · Sun Sep 20 · spread 10.5

Backups: SEA 75% · LAC 74% free swap

79%

public26%

alive60.9%

DET Detroit Lions

vs NYJ · home · Sun Sep 27 · spread 9.5

Backups: SF 79% free swap · KC 70%

76%

public20%

alive46.4%

CHI Chicago Bears

vs NYJ · home · Sun Oct 4 · spread 8.5

Backups: BAL 74% · MIN 71% free swap

73%

public22%

alive34.1%

NE New England Patriots

vs LV · home · Sun Oct 11 · spread 8.5

Backups: DET 71% free swap · CIN 67% free swap

73%

public30%

alive24.8%

LAR Los Angeles Rams

vs ARI · home · Sun Oct 18 · spread 13.5

Backups: NE 75% · BAL 69%

83%

public41%

alive20.6%

HOU Houston Texans

vs NYG · home · Sun Oct 25 · spread 5.5

Backups: LAR 72% · DEN 68% free swap

64%

public12%

alive13.2%

DAL Dallas Cowboys

vs ARI · home · Sun Nov 1 · spread 10.5

Backups: GB 70% · CIN 69%

76%

public34%

alive10.0%

SEA Seattle Seahawks

vs ARI · home · Sun Nov 8 · spread 13.5

Backups: KC 75% · SF 74%

81%

public32%

alive8.1%

IND Indianapolis Colts

vs MIA · home · Sun Nov 15 · spread 6.5

Backups: LAR 76% · BUF 70%

68%

public18%

alive5.5%

KC Kansas City Chiefs

vs ARI · home · Sun Nov 22 · spread 11.5

Backups: BUF 79% · LAC 75%

77%

public16%

alive4.2%

JAX Jacksonville Jaguars

vs TEN · home · Sun Nov 29 · spread 5.5

Backups: CIN 66% free swap · LAR 62%

66%

public17%

alive2.8%

DEN Denver Broncos

vs MIA · home · Sun Dec 6 · spread 9.5

Backups: PHI 69% free swap · CIN 63%

73%

public30%

alive2.0%

PHI Philadelphia Eagles

vs IND · home · Sun Dec 13 · spread 5.5

Backups: DET 69% free swap · SEA 68%

63%

public8%

alive1.3%

GB Green Bay Packers

vs MIA · home · Sun Dec 20 · spread 10.5

Backups: LAR 64% · NYG 63%

75%

public27%

alive0.9%

BAL Baltimore Ravens

vs CLE · home · Sun Dec 27 · spread 10.0

Backups: LAC 67% · NE 65%

74%

public21%

alive0.7%

BUF Buffalo Bills

at MIA · Sun Jan 3 · spread 7.5

Backups: SEA 63% · DAL 61%

69%

public9%

alive0.5%

CIN Cincinnati Bengals

vs CLE · home · Sun Jan 10 · spread 7.5

Backups: BUF 70% · NE 69% free swap

66%

public8%

alive0.3%

Strategy vs the pool

Strategy	Survive all 18	10-person pool	20-person pool	30-person pool
Optimal path (this plan)	0.3%	14.6%1.6× fair	8.2%1.7× fair	5.9%1.8× fair
Ride the favorites	0.3%	14.9%1.6× fair	8.6%1.8× fair	6.1%1.9× fair
Contrarian	0.1%	10.6%1.2× fair	6.0%1.3× fair	4.3%1.3× fair

Pool cells show your expected share of the pot (fair share = 1/pool size). 50,000 simulated seasons against opponents who behave like the survivor public — clustering on the biggest available favorite. Optimal and favorite-riding are close in small pools; the optimal path banks its edge late, when surviving weeks 10+ decides the pot.

Read before you pick

Farm the bottom. The path picks against Arizona five times and Miami five times — schedule mining, not team love.
Every pick is a home team except Week 17 (Buffalo at Miami), and all nine international games are avoided by design.
Week 18 is a trap — locked seeds rest starters. The model already shrinks Week 18 confidence; if you're still alive then, re-check who's resting before submitting.
Re-run weekly. Lookahead lines move on injuries and QB news. Log the pick in picks.json, run python3 update.py, and the remaining weeks re-optimize.
Season survival compounds hard: even the optimal path survives all 18 weeks 0.3% of the time. Pools are won by outlasting, not going 18-0.